Potential US Government Shutdown at the End of January 2026: A Threat to Stocks and Crypto, an Opportunity for Gold and Silver

On Sunday, January 25, 2026, negative news once again emerged from the United States. Based on the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of a US Government Shutdown on January 31, 2026 has increased to 77%. This figure has surged sharply within the last 24 hours, reflecting rising political tensions in Washington.

This increase in probability comes amid delays in discussions surrounding the Clarity Act, an important piece of legislation aimed at providing regulatory clarity for the crypto industry. The legislative process has once again slowed due to unresolved political dynamics—similar to the pattern seen during the long shutdown in October–November.

That shutdown lasted for 43 days and was recorded as the longest shutdown in United States history.

Lessons from the Previous Shutdown

Looking back, the impact of the October–November shutdown is still fresh in the minds of market participants. During that period, stock and crypto markets experienced significant declines, while gold and silver surged sharply.

Historical data shows that on October 1, the price of gold was around USD 3,875. In a short period of time, gold prices climbed to a peak of approximately USD 4,348, representing an increase of about 12%.

Silver showed a similar performance. From a price of around USD 46, silver rose to USD 54, recording an increase of approximately 17% within just the first two weeks.

Potential Impact if the Shutdown Reoccurs

With the rising probability of a shutdown, many believe that historical patterns could repeat themselves. If that happens, gold is expected to break above USD 4,987, with the possibility of even reaching USD 5,500.

Silver is also considered to have strong upside potential. This is driven by the nature of fiat money, which can be printed without limit, in stark contrast to gold and silver, whose physical supply continues to become scarcer.

The Dual Market Phenomenon in Silver

Current conditions in the silver market indicate a dual market phenomenon. In the US market, silver prices are around USD 100, while in the Shanghai physical market, prices have surpassed USD 113.

This discrepancy reflects an imbalance between the physical silver market and the paper silver market (paper silver). This imbalance creates arbitrage opportunities, where market participants buy silver in the US and sell it in China.

However, this situation cannot last forever. There are even suspicions of price suppression efforts in the US silver market, particularly because many large financial institutions have taken short positions in silver.

Conclusion

Will a market crash occur in the near future? No one can say for certain. However, if history repeats itself, gold and silver have the potential to experience major rallies, while crypto and stock markets face the risk of severe pressure, with crypto expected to be the most affected asset.

The most important lesson is to read history rather than merely guessing market direction. In times of global uncertainty, understanding market cycles and dynamics becomes a key factor in making sound investment decisions.